- Traders sell precious metals with Copper, Gold, Silver plunging to yearly lows.
- Focal point this week is US Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday.
- US Dollar Index breaks above 107 and prints 11-month high.
The US Dollar (USD) is making victims in several asset classes: precious metals sink to yearly lows while bond traders are still reluctant to buy US bonds at these elevated coupons while equities are turning red on their yearly performance. King Dollar is not going away any time soon as US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Monday evening communicated to the markets that the central bank will advance with careful decisions on rates and that rates will remain elevated to get inflation down to 2%.
It thus does not seem that this rate differential story will go away anytime soon, unless something fundamental happens. After the recent Institute of Supply Management (ISM) numbers, it becomes clear that the US economy is still withstanding these elevated rates. Focus this Tuesday will be on the JOLTS job posting numbers to see if there is a slowdown in labor demand, which could tip the scale in the coming months.
Daily digest: US Dollar makes victims
- At 12:55 GMT, the lighter data calendar for this Tuesday kicks off with the weekly Redbook Index. Previous print was 3.8%.
- Near 14:00 GMT, all eyes will be on the JOLTS Job Openings for August. Although it is a backward-looking indicator, it will tell a bit more about the appetite and demand for the labor force. Will the downtrend continue as the previous number was 8.827 million with projections at 8.83 million, meaning a standstill is expected.
- The US Treasury will hit the markets again and needs to place a 52-week bill at these elevated levels.
- Equities are not dealing well with this stronger Greenback and are sinking lower. Several equities indices are trading in the red for the year: In Asia, markets are red across the board with the Nikkei and Topix indices sinking more than 1%. The Hang Seng is down over 2%. European equities plunging lower as well with the US session nearing, down near 1% while US equity futures are taking a turn for the worse as well.
- The CME Group FedWatch Tool shows that markets are pricing in a 74.3% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting in November.
- The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield is lower at 4.75% printing a new high yet again for the year. The rate differential story is back as a driving force in the US bond market.
US Dollar Index technical analysis: Mayhem in the markets
The US Dollar Index is on track to become the trade of the year. With several equity indices trading in the red for their performance in 2023, and precious metals hitting several floors. The US Dollar seems to be the only place to get a solid return, together with Crude oil prices. The importance of the US data will become even more important in order to time when this US Dollar cycle will come to an end.
The US Dollar Index opened around 107.21, though the overheated Relative Strength Index (RSI) is acting up again and heading back into an overbought regime. With 107.19 – the high of November 30, 2022 – being tested as we speak, it will be important to see if it can get a daily close. If that is the case, 109.30 is the next level to watch.
On the downside, the recent resistance at 105.88 should be seen as first support. Still, that barrier has just been broken to the upside, so it isn’t likely to be strong. Instead, look for 105.12 to do the trick and keep the DXY above 105.00.
INTEREST RATES FAQS
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%.
If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.