• USD/INR edges lower on Thursday and stalls a two-day recovery trend from a multi-month low.
• The technical setup seems tilted in favour of bears and supports prospects for a further downfall.
• A sustained move back above the 200-day SMA is needed to negate the near-term negative bias.

The USD/INR pair struggles to capitalize on its recovery gains registered over the past two days, from the 81.65 region, or the lowest level since early May and attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices, however, manage to recover a few pips from the daily low and currently trade around the 82.00 mark, down less than 0.10% for the day.

From a technical perspective, the recent breakdown through ascending trend-line support extending from November 2022, which coincided with the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), favours bearish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining negative traction and add credence to the outlook. This, along with the prevalent US Dollar (USD) selling bias, suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/INR pair is to the downside.

Hence, a slide back towards testing a multi-month low, around the 81.65 area touched on Tuesday, looks like a distinct possibility. The USD/INR could slide further towards the next relevant support near the 81.50 zone. Spot prices could eventually drop to test sub-81.00 levels or the YTD low set in January.

On the flip side, the 200-day SMA, currently pegged around the 82.20 region, might continue to act as an immediate strong barrier. A sustained move beyond might trigger a short-covering rally and lift the USD/INR pair towards the 82.70-82.80 supply zone. Some follow-through buying might then allow bulls to make a fresh attempt to conquer the 83.00 round-figure mark, which has been acting as a strong barrier since the beginning of this year.

Hence, a convincing breakthrough will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and set the stage for an extension of the USD/INR pair’s well-established uptrend witnessed since August 2022. Spot prices might then surpass the all-time peak, around the 83.40-83.45 region touched in October 2022, and aim to reclaim the 84.00 mark.

USD/INR daily chart

Key levels to watch

USD/INR